According to a recent article published by the Department of Defense, Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Richard P. Mills says Nato and Afghan forces are seeing a reduction in violence in Helman Province in Afghanistan.  

Key Highlights:

• Insurgents in Afghanistan’s Helmand province have lost the momentum to NATO and Afghan forces, and those forces will continue to take on the Taliban all through the winter, the commander of NATO’s Regional Command Southwest said today.  Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Richard P. Mills said NATO and Afghan forces already are seeing a reduction in violence, but that the plan is to give the Taliban no rest.
•  Historically, fighting in Afghanistan dies down during the tough winters and insurgent groups use the time to rest and refit, but Afghan and NATO forces plan to weigh in on that matter, the general said. “The ‘off-season’ takes two to tango,” he said during an interview at his headquarters. “[The enemy is] not going to get an off-season. He’s not going to get to go home and relax. He’s not getting two weeks in Florida.” “When the fighting season begins in April, it isn’t going to be the same stadium – it’ll be a different playing field,” he said.

SFTT Analysis:

Indeed, credit is due for the marginal results in Regional Command Southwest.  But, the fact that NATO had to establish a two-star headquarters and create a new Regional Command to counter the insurgency in that area of operations is a clear indicator of the strength of the Afghan insurgency.

General Mills needs to re-consider his “off-season” and “when fighting season begins in April” because the fight in Afghanistan has always been a 24/7/365 day fight.  A simple check of casualty rates since 2001 in Afghanistan during the “winter months”, November through February confirms that 30% of all coalition troops killed in action occurred during these months.  The data is readily available – since 2001 there have been 453 coalition troops killed in action during the months of November through February.  While there might be a reduced presence and lower level insurgent unit led operations during the period, it might be naïve to say that the enemy “rests” during this period – not sure the families of the fallen with the months November-December-January-February etched on their tombstones would agree with the General that the enemy “rests”. 

But, good on the General that his command will be pressing the fight during the winter.  Just don’t say that the enemy rests because it can lull the public to believe that everyone is on the sidelines during the winter when in actuality the death merchant never really rests.